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A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."