🔗 Share this article

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.