🔗 Share this article

Amid the widespread uncertainty surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, one thing is clear – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its first major military attack on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another state and seize its president – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.